Warlords and heavyweights

I have said this before and I will say it again. Sex and politics are the two top sellers. If you talk about these you can't go wrong; your newspaper will surely sell. And if it is a combination of both, sex scandals involving politicians, that is even better. It sells even more and you can safely double your printing order as you can be assured of selling every copy printed.
Incidences of sex scandals involving senior politicians are not something new of course. We have been seeing these pop up from time to time since Merdeka and they will surely keep popping up until long after we are gone. Of course, much of these so-called scandals were mere talk and whispers. As much as they may have made interesting reading, you really could not prove them. That was until quite very recently.

Malaysia was recently entertained by the revelation of a DVD of the Health Minister literally caught with his pants down. I use the word entertained because most were amused rather than shocked at the on-camera revelation of the indiscretion of the Minister who just days before that had propagated safe sex but did not see the need for himself to do the same. Safe sex of course not only involves the usage of condoms but also making sure you do not get caught, especially on camera, and the Health Minister failed in both aspects.

That is the level of Malaysia's moral outrage. No one took to the streets to demonstrate their disgust or displeasure. Yes, there certainly were people running around all over the place, no doubt of that, but they were scrambling helter-skelter to try to get their hands on a copy of the DVD so that they could do some 'academic research' and establish that the DVD indeed features the Minister of Health and not his look-alike or brother.

It was actually a very well-organised and well-coordinated distribution campaign. Teams of distributors went from town to town in Johor to distribute the DVDs to every house and public place. Thousands upon thousands were dished out and no one can claim they did not receive a copy of the DVD. The huge manpower resources and substantial amount of finance required to embark on such an operation could only mean that big bucks were involved here. And it could only have been financed by those with deep pockets.

Chua Soi Lek is of course not quite unknown as a ladies' man. He would in fact brag that he is 'famous' as a Casanova and would tell his peers 'everyone knows I am a womaniser'. As much as one may frown upon such behaviour, at least he was honest about what he is and did not try to hide behind the mask of Islam Hadhari while leading the lifestyle of Paris Hilton.

Woe to any woman who caught Soi Lek's eyes. He would immediately task his bouncers with the job of propositioning her and negotiate whether she is 'for sale'. He did not care whether he was in the presence of strangers or someone whom he might have just met barely minutes ago. Many would relate how they were shocked when Soi Lek whispered in their ear as to whether that woman sitting at the next table or walking by was 'hot' and sleeps around. One man even told Soi Lek to his face that he was shocked and Soi Lek responded with a smile as if the statement was meant as a compliment.

The DVD making its rounds all over the country is not new. It was taken two years ago. As Soi Lek himself admitted, his only mistake was to frequent the same hotel and the same room each time he rendezvoused with his 'partner' and this allowed his enemies to place five cameras all over the room to record the goings-on. Soi Lek does not think he made any other mistake other than that.

But why did they want to record what, as Soi Lek said, is his private affair? Quite simple, really. They wanted to keep that recording as an insurance policy in the event they needed to get rid of him in an opportune time. It is no secret that Soi Lek is very popular amongst the grass-root. His performance in the 2004 elections was much improved over the 1999 elections and his majority can be regarded as very impressive. He speaks well -- in Mandarin, English as well as Bahasa Malaysia -- and is a powerful orator. He is everything that one looks for in a national leader. And he openly declared that the MCA leadership is weak and is due for a change -- meaning he should take over the leadership of MCA.

When the MCA President asked Soi Lek to appoint certain people aligned to the former in some of the local councils, the latter replied that the President should just concentrate on national matters and stay out of Johor State matters. It was Soi Lek's way of telling the President to go jump in the lake. Soi Lek did not hide the fact that he had only contempt for the President and at the next party election scheduled after the coming general election he was going to make a bid for the Presidency of the party.

But the President had other plans. He wanted his brother to replace him as President. So they had no choice, therefore, but to get rid of Soi Lek. And they did this by cashing in the insurance policy they acquired two years ago.

Once this DVD hits the national scene, Soi Lek would have no choice but to resign his party and government posts. And once he no longer holds any post either in the party or the government it would be very difficult for him to even keep his division post, no need to even talk about making a bid for the Presidency. Invariably, he would also have to be dropped as a candidate in the general election thereby sealing his fate once and for all.

While all this was going on though, while Soi Lek was set up to be sent into permanent retirement, not many noticed the outburst by the Umno Secretary-General who said that Shahidan Kassim, the Menteri Besar of Perlis, should go. No doubt the excitement of the Soi Lek DVD overshadowed this episode and not many took much notice of the Sec-Gen's outburst. This outburst, however, was not a mere outburst but a cry of frustration by the Sec-Gen who was so depressed that the Umno President a la Prime Minister failed to act on a certain matter that places the Soi Lek DVD scandal way at the bottom of the serious matters scale.

Earlier, the Sec-Gen had brought a Thai girl together with the brother of a certain state Ruler, who was also a Wakil Rakyat, to meet the Prime Minister. A lady doctor was also in the delegation. The girl then testified that Shahidan had made her pregnant and then arranged for her to have an abortion. The lady doctor confirmed that this was so and that she had performed the abortion. Abdullah Ahmad Badawi appeared perturbed and asked the Wakil Rakyat whether his brother, the Ruler, knew about this matter. The Wakil Rakyat replied that the Ruler has all the facts and is fully aware of the matter.

The Sec-Gen then told Abdullah that this was not the only girl whom Shahidan had made pregnant. He personally knows of three such cases and has heard that there are many more. The Sec-Gen added that Shahidan's sexual trysts are perpetrated in the country home of another Minister from Perlis, Azmi Khalid, and sometimes in the office of the Menteri Besar, in the surau or prayer-room of the Menteri Besar's office to be exact.

Abdullah took all this in with a troubled look on his face and promised to do something about it. He then referred the matter to his son-in-law who replied that Shahidan is their strongest and most loyal ally. He, in fact, was instrumental in blocking Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad from entering Perlis. They just can't afford to sack Shahidan. If they do, then the opposition would have a better chance of taking over the state as Shahidan and his team of gangsters is the only thing they have to keep Mahathir and the opposition out of the state. For purposes of political expediency, Shahidan has to be retained.

So Abdullah did nothing and this was what upset the Umno Sec-Gen. Instead, Shahidan, dropped both the Sec-Gen and Azmi from the candidates' list. Abdullah can't afford to lose Shahidan but he can afford to replace the Sec-Gen and Azmi. Perlis has only three Parliament seats and there are many others waiting in the wings to take over as Members of Parliament. But there is only one gangster who can mobilise an 'army' of bouncers to keep the state under a short leash.
Like it or not, Umno is still a party of warlords. And these warlords are those who keep the Umno President in office. And he who is Umno President is also the Prime Minister. You do not replace warlords. You do not sack warlords. Instead, warlords will sack you and replace you with someone else. That has always been how Umno operates and that will always be how it is for a long, long time to come.

It is said that Pakistan is run by just 100 families. It is said that the United States is also the same. In Malaysia, 191 people call the shots and these 191 are the Umno division chiefs.
The 191 Umno division chiefs pick the 2,000 or so delegates to the Umno general assembly. Then the 2,000 or so delegates decide who gets to become President and Deputy President depending on the choice of the 191 division chiefs. In fact, in the first place, the 191 division chiefs decide whether there will be a contest for the Presidency and Deputy Presidency or whether there should be no contest. If the 191 division chiefs decide that there should be no contest and the President and Deputy President should be allowed to continue indefinitely then this should be what happens. And these 191 division chiefs also sit in the Supreme Council and Cabinet where the policies are made and which cannot be challenged in any court of law.

Most of the 191 Umno warlords or division chiefs do not think Abdullah is capable. They think he is the worst Prime Minister Malaysia ever had. Many, which holds true for most Malaysians as well, look back on the good old days of Mahathir. They in fact would not mind if Mahathir came back as Prime Minister in spite of the fact when he was in office they rated him the worst Prime Minister Malaysia ever had. But these 191 Umno warlords, or 190 if you exclude Abdullah, realise that a Prime Minister of the likes of Abdullah is better to have around than the likes of Mahathir. Abdullah never makes any decisions. In fact, he is so scared of making decisions and would fall back on his son-in-law for advice and would follow whatever advice the latter may offer.

The son-in-law knows he is not popular. Harbouring ambitions of becoming Prime Minister at age 40 is a pie in the sky and extremely risky to boot. Whether he can even win the post of Umno Youth leader or, later, become one of the Vice Presidents is stretching the imagination. In Umno, as in most political parties, you need grass-root support. And if you do not have this grass-root support then you need to ride on those who do, and in this case it would be the 191 Umno division chiefs.

Sure, the Umno division chiefs may be scum of the earth and slime-balls. Most warlords are anyway in almost all the countries where warlords call the shots. But it is because they are scum of the earth and slime-balls that they are where they are; meaning Umno division chiefs. So you need to work with these people. You need to get their support. And you do not worry about morals and ethics because warlords do not have any. What they have is power and the strength to mobilise the grass-root. And that is how you become Umno President and Prime Minister, by mobilising grass-root support.

Sex scandals will not sway the voters. Corruption will not sway the voters. Heck, even murder does not seem to sway the voters. If it did then Barisan Nasional would have been out of office a long time ago. Musa Aman, the Chief Minister of Sabah, was worth RM300 million barely a few years ago when he took over the running of the state. Today, in a few short years, he is worth RM1 billion. How he acquired RM300 million on taking office and how it grew to RM1 billion in a few short years has already been discussed at great length, so we need not go into all that again. But the voters will not kick Musa Aman out. So Abdullah need not kick him out either. After all, he has given Abdullah's family plenty of money and even underwrote the entire cost of the late Endon's medical expenses in the US plus Khairy's cost to acquire shares in ECM Libra.
There are only two things that worry Abdullah. First would be an internal rebellion and conflict within Umno. But if you leave the warlords alone and close your eyes to their sex scandals and corruption you need not worry that they will turn on you. Second, of course, would be that the voters kick you out. But with the opposition so weak and fragmented and making conflicting statements there is no danger that the opposition can garner enough support to kick out the ruling party.

Abdullah would best leave things as they are. The next general election could be as soon as before Chinese New Year about a month from today. This means within a fortnight or so Parliament would probably be dissolved. With less than a month to go why the need to rock the boat?

The outcome of the general election hinges on the Elections Commission. Considering the first-past-the-post system that Malaysia practices, it is not votes but seats that determine who gets to form the government. The opposition is expected to garner at least 40% of the votes. Based on a voter turnout of roughly eight million, this would give the opposition 3.2 million votes. That would mean 4.8 million votes will go to the 14-member ruling coalition, Barisan Nasional, giving it a majority of only 1.6 million votes. But that is all it needs to come back to power with a comfortable two-thirds majority. And the warlords and power-brokers will remain in office and will continue serving Abdullah as long as he continues serving them. That is how it works in a 'you scratch my back, I scratch yours' culture which has become not only Umno's culture but Malaysian culture at large.

The Elections Commission Chairman's term of office has actually expired. But Abdullah did not request the Agong's consent in extending it lest His Majesty says no like he did in the case of the Chief Justice. Abdullah knew he faced a great risk by requesting the Agong's consent. So, instead, he went before Parliament and amended the law which will now allow the Prime Minister to extend the tenure of the Elections Commission Chairman without requiring the consent of the Agong.

Then a stack of papers which required the Agong's signature were presented before His Majesty. Amongst that of course was the amendment bill whereby the Elections Commission Chairman can be extended a year beyond retirement without requiring the consent of the Agong. The Agong can now be by-passed and ignored and there is nothing His Majesty can do about it. It was now legal to bypass the Agong and illegal for the Agong to block the move. Any move by the Agong would be seen as unreasonable and unconstitutional so the best His Majesty could do was just sign the papers and not make any noise. Doing otherwise might work against His Majesty and the very institution of the Monarchy itself.

Abdullah is not really as stupid as he looks after all. He of course goes around creating that impression as a fall-back so that, at worse, you can just accuse him of being stupid but never of being devious, manipulative or exploitive. The Elections Commission Chairman has made it very clear, without holding back his punches, that his job is to ensure that the Malays will not lose political domination. He is not apologetic or evasive about this. He says this openly to anyone who cares to listen. Since the Malays have lost economic domination to the Chinese and the Chinese now practically control the entire economy, what is wrong with the Malays, in turn, having political domination?

That argument makes everything legitimate and noble. No one can fault you for 'maintaining stability' and ensuring that the 'delicate racial balance' is not shattered by race riots in the event the Malays lose political domination after losing economic domination to the Chinese. This is the only way, argues the Elections Commission Chairman, to guarantee that the Malays and Chinese will not go for each others throats, or rather the Malays will not go for the Chinese throats that will see Malaysia explode into another May 13, as how the government is so fond of reminding us.

The Chinese are blatantly reminded that they can retain economic domination as long as the Malays retain political domination. But if the Malays suffer the loss of political domination, then the Chinese would no longer enjoy economic domination. And if Malaysia were to erupt into civil war with the Malays on one side and the Chinese on the other, and of course the security forces being all Malay would certainly be on the side of the Malays, the economy would collapse bringing down Chinese economic domination together with it.

So 'Chinese' seats are large with more than 100,000 voters while 'Malay' seats are as small as 5,000 voters. This way the opposition can win 40% of the votes but not 40% of the seats. And even if the opposition wins 45% of the votes, leaving the ruling coalition 55%, like what happened in 1999, the ruling coalition would still retain power with a comfortable two-thirds majority.
But this would be true only if the opposition voters are Chinese while the ruling party voters are Malay. The opposition has always been perceived as Chinese while the government has always been perceived as Malay. It has always been them and us, Chinese being 'them' and Malays being 'us'. This was how it was since Merdeka 50 years ago. But would this still apply if the Malays, Chinese and Indians unite under the opposition banner and the opposition is no longer race-based but a multi-racial front?

Yes, this is the new scenario emerging in Malaysian politics. No longer is the opposition based on race with the Chinese as the opposition and the Malays as the government supporters. Now it is justice opposed to injustice with both sides seeing equal support from all the races. There are as many angry Chinese and Indians are there are Malays.

There have of course been exceptions to this rule. In 1999, the Malays swung to the opposition while the Chinese stood by the government. But that was not enough. Though the Malay heartland fell to the opposition, the ruling party still managed to retain most states and its two-thirds majority in Parliament as well. Only in 1969 when the Malays and Chinese were both united against the government did the ruling party almost collapse. So it has to be another 1969, not enough just another 1999. But 1969 also brings back other painful memories which the Chinese would not want to see repeated. So will the Chinese dare do another 1969 by uniting with the Malays to deny the ruling coalition its two-thirds majority in Parliament?

Many Chinese feel that the 1969 election result can be repeated without the repeat of the 1969 election aftermath. The Malays of today are not the Malays of 40 years ago, as is also true of the Chinese. Even the Indians of today are not like the Indians of 40 years ago as the recent HINDRAF episode has proven. The Malays, Chinese and Indians are ready to unite, united against the ruling coalition. The BERSIH and HINDRAF events of November 2007 have proven this. As much as the government tried to stoke the anti-Indian fire and get the Malays to rise in anger against the Indians, it did not happen. Many Malays, in fact, support HINDRAF, as do many Chinese support BERSIH.

This is what worries the government. If the races can't be separated by communal interests this does not augur well for the government. They need the different races to be on the brink of civil war without actually going to war. It should be much sabre-rattling and rhetoric without any blows actually being traded. But if the different races lock arms and call one another brother, then this will spell the end of the divide-and-rule strategy.

But the problem is not the different races. The Malays, Chinese and Indians are ready to stand shoulder-to-shoulder. It is the political parties which are the stumbling block to opposition unity. Even after one year they still can't agree on the seat distribution. The next general election could be as soon as one month away but the three opposition parties still can't resolve their many differences. The squabble over seats is just one of the issues, though maybe one of the more important ones. They also refuse to agree to a joint or common election manifesto, each preferring to come out with their own individual manifesto.

It appears like the opposition is the worst enemy of the opposition. The ruling party does not really have to try too hard to defeat the opposition. The opposition is doing that very well by themselves. PAS has its own agenda. DAP has its own agenda. PKR too has it own agenda. And each of them are only interested in their own agenda, not in the opposition agenda. They all want safe seats so that they can be assured of a win even though the rest will not. So the big guns choose the plum seats and fight with each other across parties and within parties for these safe seats, leaving the others to their own devices, to sink or swim as the case may be.

The opposition leaders are also human and, as is common to most humans, they are all very selfish. They do not care about the party. They especially do not care about the opposition coalition. They just want a good seat which they can be assured of winning. PAS, DAP and PKR will not compromise on seats. Each wants the good seats and each will not allow the other these seats. And they will keep these seats for themselves. And the newcomers and not so heavyweights will be given the high risk seats which are assured of falling to the ruling coalition. These are not candidates. These are sacrificial lambs. And the job of sacrificial lambs is to get slaughtered.

The heavyweights should actually be sent to contest in the tough seats. After all, they have been in office many elections and are already well-known. It is time they moved up in the world and prove that they are really good by contesting in the tough seats -- and win, of course -- while allowing the new faces to contest in the safer seats where voters will vote along party lines rather than based on personalities. Those who have been winning in safe seats at least two elections in a row must be sent to battle it out in tougher areas. Let those guaranteed seats be given to newcomers who need all the help they can get. If not we will have the same people in office for generations while no new blood can be groomed to eventually take over the leadership of the party.

Actually, the attitude of the opposition is no different from that of the ruling coalition. The only small difference is that the opposition is not in power, yet. It makes one wonder whether if the opposition comes to power things would be different. From the way they are conducting themselves now this does not appear to be so. The opposition heavyweights are as selfish as the Umno warlords. What we accuse the Umno warlords of we can say the same about the opposition heavyweights. It is frightening to think that changing the government may merely tantamount to out of the frying pan and into the fire.

The opposition can of course prove us wrong. They can sit down and settle the seat allocation issue. They can agree on a joint or common election manifesto. They can offer us just one party to choose from instead of currently three parties with three different election manifestos. And if they do that we might just consider coming out to vote on Polling Day instead of staying home to watch television. And who knows, we might even vote opposition again. If not, then I will have better things to do on Polling Day instead of wasting my vote on a lost cause.